When Punxsutawney Phil was woken from his burrow this morning on Groundhog Day 2023, the Groundhog Club Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel (and the only one who can translate Groundhoghese) pointed to the scroll with Phil’s annual prognostication, which was then read aloud:
“I see the morning has brought the finest people. I see their bravery and spirit. The time has come, I can feel it; the excitement, I can hear it. I see the folks with gray in their hair and I see the kids – all young and scrawny. Their eyes and cheeks aglow from the cold, clean air of sweet Punxsutawney. I see that everyone knows their part, and I am merely the sage, but above all else, I see a shadow on my stage and so, no matter how you measure, it’s six more weeks of winter weather.”
That means, once again, our Seer of Seers has predicted a long winter.
According to the numbers as reported by the Groundhog Day “Inner Circle,” Punxsy Phil has now seen his shadow (predicted six more weeks of winter) now 108 times and saw no shadow (predicted an early spring) 19 times.
Photo: Screenshot of the official 2023 Groundhog Day livestream
Calculating those numbers shows that about 84 percent of the time that he makes a prediction, Phil predicts six more weeks of winter ahead of us!
There are actually 10 times where Punxsutawney Phil made no prediction at all, for a variety of reasons. The first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob was in 1887, and many of the early years of the holiday after that had no record of a prediction.
Notably, Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction in 1942 includes the fact that “war clouds have blacked out parts of the shadow” and no prediction or appearance was given at all in 1943 during World War II.
Photo: The Groundhog Club won the 2022 PA Wilds Champion Award for Event of the Year. From left: Jory Serrian (Daybreaker, Groundhog Club Inner Circle), Ta Enos (Founder and CEO of PA Wilds Center for Entrepreneurship), AJ Dereume (Rainmaker and Phil’s Handler, Groundhog Club Inner Circle), Dan McGinley (Moonshine, Groundhog Club Inner Circle).
How often is Phil’s prediction correct? Well, it depends who you ask. True believers of the beloved groundhog will say that Phil is always right! However, using these predictions and lining them up with actual weather patterns, it looks like Phil is lacking in his prognostication skills. Depending on whose weather tracking you use and what statistics you base the weather on, Phil has a track record of being correct about 36 to 39 percent of the time.
As for whether Phil is right about his prediction of a long winter for 2023, we’ll just have to wait and see if he’s right!
Author: Britt Madera
Britt joined the PA Wilds team as communications manager in 2022, helping to tell the stories that make our region so unique, whether that is covering our beautiful landscapes, the innovative businesses, or the spunky people that call it home. She had worked the last 10 years in radio and news broadcasting, and now she’s continuing to connect media outlets with positive news stories. Britt oversees external communications, media relations, and paid and volunteer content on the blog. As someone who grew up in Clearfield County and moved back shortly after college, Britt is eager to share her passion for the PA Wilds and help our area grow and shine.